Wednesday, May 20, 2015
It seems as though the market is still trying to make up its mind here. The Dow fell 27 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The Fed minutes arrived and the stock indices had a small rally only to give it all back. The TRAN had a very negative day. If that is the leader here, we are about to roll over. It has that feel. The summation index is starting to go sideways. The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes are overbought. I'm moving my stance to cautious here. GE on the other hand was up over 1/3 on good volume. If GE is a precursor for the overall market, than we should be moving higher. But I'm not thinking that is the case this time around. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher but not as much as the past two days. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains. Volume was light. For whatever reason, NEM is out performing here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A couple of days to go this week before a long holiday weekend in the US. I think the logical course of action would be to let this week complete and go from there. Maybe try some June SPY puts if we continue to just drift higher on light volume. The market has tried to break out and the volume hasn't been there. The TRAN breakdown is not a positive. The small cap stocks have now made lower highs. Unless we get some huge upside rally out of nowhere, be wary. Perhaps the Yellen speech on Friday will help the market make up its mind. The gold share indices remain in an upward channel. But one more negative session will break down out of it. Stay tuned. We'll see what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.