Monday, May 11, 2015
No upside follow through today as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. I am thinking about getting some May SPY calls on weakness tomorrow but I usually don't fare well on the short term trades. The technical picture is mixed for this trade but we are in expiration week. Maybe I'll come to my senses and skip this idea. We'll see. GE was off 3/8 on average volume. The Bollinger bands are contracting which foretells a big move coming for GE. Which way is the question. I still like the June or July calls here but I could be reading things wrong here as well. Obviously my confidence isn't where it should be. Gold was off $5 today as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares are more oversold than overbought on a short term basis. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Knocking on the door to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices but we just can't get in. Not a lot of economic data due this week but we do get retail sales on Wednesday. That should get things moving. Once again, which direction is the question. If things get short term oversold on some of my intra-day indicators tomorrow, then I might try the SPY call trade. If not I'll hopefully sit things out. I'll be checking some other things out overnight. GLD and SLV remain in a trading range with light volume. Unloved and with no interest for now. It is still a seasonally unfavorable time period for the precious metals. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and decide what to do tomorrow.