Friday, May 15, 2015
An uneventful expiration as the Dow gained 20 points on light volume. the advance/declines were positive. We were lower for most of the session in a narrow trading range. Some of the big cap averages hit new all time highs today. But we haven't seen a high volume breakout to the upside just yet. I do think that it's coming but I certainly don't know when. The summation index is now heading higher. However the small caps, most notably RUT, are lagging here. I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward. I just need to time the purchase of some SPY calls at the right time. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. I'm leaning towards the July calls here. Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar lost a bit more. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. Still oversold here on a medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. On now to the June option cycle which has an extra week in it. The premiums will be priced as such and will be more expensive to start. We'll also have a holiday week thrown in a s well. We'll get the Fed minutes in the middle of next week. The SPY is getting short term overbought. I'll be looking at what to do over the weekend but I'm pretty sure that I want to own calls here reasonably soon. If the stock indices do break out to the upside, there is no overhead resistance. I'm considering the July calls for GE because this stock sometimes goes sideways for quite a while, as is the case for the past few weeks. The ideal entry point would be around $26.50. Gold and the gold shares are short term overbought here and at 200 day resistance. Although this is a seasonally weak period for the precious metal, it has held up pretty well. I'm not sure what that means going forward. There is certainly not a lot of interest in the precious metals at this time. Patience is probably the best course of action here. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.