Tuesday, May 26, 2015
We started off the short trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 190 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index will be moving lower after todays action. The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now rolled over. We did bounce up off of the lows for the day in the final hour. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of something sustained or just another run lower in the trading range. If we stay lower the next couple of days, I'll be looking for a bounce on Friday. GE was off 1/8 or so on good volume. I'm still looking at the July calls here if we can get oversold or near the $26.50 zone. Gold fell today as the US dollar continues higher. The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. I'm looking for gold share calls with an autumn expiration. The ABX October calls are on my radar. No hurry to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN continues to drop and its 50 day moving average is now passing through the 200 day moving average to the downside. That is a classic sell signal. However none of the other major stock averages are even close to that happening. The technical roll over of the indicators says that there is more downside on the way in the short term. Obviously purchasing index puts on Friday was the way to go. My work does point to an oversold bounce possibility this Friday if we see more weakness in the next two days. So we'll see. I'll be looking at the SPY June calls if things line up. The gold share indices have broken down out of their rising trend channels. The short term technicals here are getting oversold. NEM continues to show the best relative strength. The European stock markets were weaker today also. We'll have to see if that continues overnight as well as what happens in the Asian markets.