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Tuesday, May 05, 2015

To the downside today as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The previous two day light volume rally was the opportunity to get some puts.  With the summation index heading lower the path of least resistance is down.  The TRAN got whacked today and the small stocks continue to lead the way lower.  The big caps are still near their all time highs but I think that lower prices are in the near future.  It is probably too late to purchase any SPY puts.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume picked up today.  Perhaps we will get low enough here to get the June or July calls.  Not oversold yet though.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The gold shares followed the overall market.  The XAU lost 1/2 and GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  I'm still in the camp of waiting for a pullback before considering purchasing some calls here.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  I suppose I could have been more in tune with things and recognized that the recent light volume rally was a chance to get short.  But that was not the case.  I still don't have a good idea of the markets purpose here.  Only 8 days to go in the May option cycle.  I am still a believer in higher prices for the stock indices this year.  Right now Greece is starting to enter into the market picture again.  You can only guess how that gets resolved.  US interest rates have backed up in the past couple of weeks and the decline so far could be blamed on that as well.  But the decline has really only been in the smaller issues.  We've got the employment report due out on Friday and that should provide some clarity on market direction in the near term.  I suppose it wouldn't hurt to remain cautious for now.  Gold remains uninteresting.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lower overnight. 

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