Friday, May 29, 2015
We completed the month of May with a whimper as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The revised GDP came in weaker and that was pretty much expected. The summation index is still heading lower and perhaps we should take our cues from that. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. No clear signal yet with 3 weeks to go in the June option cycle. GE was off 1/3 on average volume. It appears that the technicals here on the short term are starting to roll over. Perhaps we will get a set up for the July calls in GE. That is what I'll be looking for here. Gold didn't do much today despite the weaker GDP report. The US dollar finished the session little changed as well. Ditto for the gold share indices. Volume was light. I'm still looking for the ABX October calls but ABX isn't oversold on a medium term basis yet. I may try the June calls here again as well if the short term is negative. I should not be in a hurry here because we are still in a seasonally weak period for the precious metal. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN continues to be weak here and is oversold on both a short and medium term basis. Will this condition continue or will we see a bounce from here? I think that the answer to that question will go a long way into telling where the stock indexes are headed. Another thing to ponder is whether the divergence between the TRAN and the Dow is going to have a negative effect on stocks. It hasn't happened yet. I'll have to check the charts this weekend and try to come up with some answers. Gold is still holding on above the support of $1180 to $1150. It is oversold on a short term basis. The precious metals are either building a long term base or consolidating before the next break down. The right answer there will make you some money. It's something to think about. Plenty of work to do over the weekend. A lot of economic data out next week, with the jobs report on Friday being the biggest. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.