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Friday, November 11, 2011

Positive news out of Europe today and the Dow gained 260 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. This is the type of up and down game we're in. Down almost 400 points on Wednesday and gaining it all back in the following 2 days. We are hovering at or below most of the 200 day average lines for the stock indices. How we resolve this issue will tell the most about longer term direction. I still think we will be seeing higher prices going forward. That's my guess for now. But we are still in a headline driven environment. Anything can happen overnight. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. I still will consider the January calls here if we get some pullback. Nothing doing for now. Gold had a good day, up almost $30 on the futures as the US dollar had a bad day. The XAU rose 6 3/4. ABX up 2, GG gained 2 1/2 and NEM tacked on 1 2/3. Volume was light but there were no sellers. I placed an overnight order in for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I was a day late here as we have started to move up again. With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I do not think that I'll try this trade again. But who knows? The weekly charts are still pointing to higher prices. I may go out to December or January if we get some downside. Mentally I'm not feeling good about missing that ABX trade at a higher strike price. We are overbought but with all the uncertainty in Europe, gold seems to be the place that is attracting money. I do think that ABX and GG will follow NEM to new highs in the next couple of months. That would require a break to the upside from the $55 level for both of these stocks on good volume. If and when these issues get through $55, they could move much higher since there is no resistance beyond that point. That is my idea for the gold shares in the medium term future. The stock indices are being moved around by the events in Europe on a daily basis. That is a tough game to play. I am looking for higher prices in the coming months but how we get there is anybodies guess. Only a week left in the November option cycle so I really don't see myself taking on any short term trades here but you never know. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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