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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

We opened lower, made it all the way back and then got clobbered in the final hour to finish the day with a loss of 190 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. A report came out late in the day about the US banks exposure to the European debt. As if nobody knew about this already. But that's what happens in an event driven marketplace. We are in the 4th week of sideways action in the stock indices, so perhaps we are going to break out to the downside. We'll have to see what comes out overnight. The economic data out today wasn't all that bad but continues to be ignored in the face of the European debt problem. That is the ongoing situation and it hasn't changed. GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still light. A waiting game here and it is probably better to be patient. Gold fell $8 in the futures market and some more in the aftermarket. The US dollar continues higher as the flight to safety is still in effect. The XAU dropped 4 bucks. ABX off 7/8, GG down 3/4 and NEM led the way lower by 1 2/3. Volume remains light here. Perhaps I'll get an opportunity to try the gold share calls for December or January if we continue lower. The weekly charts will not be looking as positive though if the downside here persists. I'm going to try and wait for the daily chart technicals to get oversold and take it from there. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept OK. I still think that the trend for the stock indices medium term remains up. I do not think we are heading into the abyss. I'm still a believer that we've seen the lows for the year and prices will be heading higher. The price of oil just broke $100 and that tells me there is demand. I don't think we're headed for a double dip recession. But what do I know? And does it really matter? In reality the only thing that really matters is the next trade. January GE calls or the December/January gold share calls. Those are the ideas for now.

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