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Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Troubles in Italy took center stage as we remain in a headline driven market. The Dow fell 389 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. I had thought we might continue to the upside but that was wrong. We are hostage to what happens overseas. Where we go from here is anybodies guess. The technicals will get thrown out the window. After a day like today you've got to figure that we're heading lower. Europe continues to be an ongoing problem and there really is no end in sight. It makes for very difficult trading for sure. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but you don't make any money there. You also don't lose any either. GE was off 2/3 on good volume. I'm back to considering the January calls. We aren't really oversold here on a medium term basis, so I'm in no hurry. Gold fell $7 on the futures and another $20 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was very strong today as the euro plummeted. Gold held up pretty good early but then dropped. The XAU lost 7 1/4. ABX down 7/8, GG lower by 1 1/4 and NEM led the way falling 2 1/3. Volume was good to the downside, which isn't bullish. But I still might try the ABX calls for November again. The relative strength of the gold shares here is very good. The technicals are starting to roll over though. If the stock market heads lower here, it will take the gold shares with it. So this isn't going to be an easy trade to put on. Plus there are only 7 days left in the November option cycle. I'm also considering going out to the January contract as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility really picked up today and that could be a sign of danger for the stock indices near term. Or some positive news comes out of Europe tomorrow and we rally 300 points. That is the problem trading right now. Anything can happen in rapid fashion. If you're on the right side of things it will turn out well. If you're not, you'll get wiped out. I might put in an overnight order for some ABX calls but I will have to study things tonight. I also may just sit things out. After the last ABX trade, I need to be careful not to project what happened there into the future. Not every trade is going to be a big winner. I'll check the charts and take it from there.

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