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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. We never got the bounce that was overdue and I dumped the OEX calls for about an 80% loss. The summation index is now heading lower and the market could easily fall apart here. The bellwethers have already broken down and the S&P 500 should take out 1040 and head lower. That doesn't mean that we won't bounce tomorrow because we are so oversold. It does mean that we are headed lower and caution is advised. I thought we would move sideways into the July expiration but I was wrong again. 9800 is the key level for the Dow. Once we break that, we are heading much lower. GE lost 1/2 on heavy volume. No trades there. Gold held up rather well and gained $3. The XAU followed the overall market and was down over 5. ABX lost a buck or so, GG down 1 1/2, with NEM off 1/3. Volume was average. I guess I'm going to look at the gold shares here again. The dollar was stronger today and it could be that the safe haven plays come back in vogue for the July expiration cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back to a buy signal. I'll look things over tonight. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So I closed out another loss for the 1st half of the year, which doesn't help my confidence going forward. But it will be forgotten because the markets don't care. I think that we are in a precarious position and I would not be surprised by anything at this point. When the markets don't act as they should technically, we're in for something. The best course of action here could just be to step aside. That's a possibility. End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend. It will be interesting to say the least.

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