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Thursday, March 21, 2024

Upside follow through today as the Dow gained 269 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The Dow was the leader today. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and closed above its upper Bollinger band. Money continues to pour into stocks. Still waiting on a decent trading signal. Might get one next week if we simply continue higher. Seems to be plenty of liquidity from somewhere. We'll stick with the technicals though. The S&P 500 is long overdue for at least some kind of selling. Tough to figure out when it simply remains overbought. Gold was up over twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on heavy volume. Not exactly sure what to make of that but the gold shares didn't follow gold today. We expect resistance for GDX at 31.25 so perhaps the gold shares will take a rest here before attempting to get through that level. We do want to own the GDX calls on a break higher through the resistance. Still short term overbought on GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished just a touch lower after being below its lower Bollinger band early on. Short term oversold for the VIX. You could make a case for a higher VIX tomorrow based on todays daily candlestick chart but we'll just wait and see how the week closes out. Remaining patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night following the US market after the Fed. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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