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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

The Fed chairman spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow climbed 401 points to a new record on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The Bollinger bands on some of the major indexes are getting tight which implies a big move in store. It appears that move will be higher. The S&P 500 set another new all time high and there is no resistance. Short term overbought there but that is nothing new. Nothing but good news for stocks at the moment. Not sure how long it will last but it's usually longer than you think. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX soared almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place an overnight order for the GDX April calls but it didn't come close to getting filled. It appears that I've missed this move for now. Longer term resistance for GDX now comes in at 31.25. We want to be on board with the calls if that resistance is broken. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up but are not completely overbought yet. I'd expect to see some follow through buying there tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and dropped below the support of the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now moving down and not yet completely oversold. This implies more near term upside for stocks. Almost touching the lower Bollinger band on the VIX which previously provided a stopping point. With the Fed out of the way what will be the next market mover? Not exactly sure. We'll wait for a decent signal to try the SPY options but it may be a few days. Missing the gains for GDX today is not what we wanted but there's still plenty of time left in the April option cycle. Perhaps this is a move higher that we need to chase. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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