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Monday, March 04, 2024

We trended sideways for much of the session but sellers showed up in the final hour as the Dow fell 97 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move out of the sideways channel that is has been stuck in but todays price action probably won't help. Not sure what led to the late swoon but some profit taking or even outright selling is long overdue. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't a rout. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the technical indicators as it has been for weeks on end. I'd still like to try the SPY March puts at some point but the question is when. Gold continued its rally as the futures jumped thirty bucks. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates moved up. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. Buyers have all of a sudden showed up for gold and I cannot pinpoint a reason why. The gold futures closed at a new all time high above $2100. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with still some room to go. The short term down trend line for GDX was broken on good volume Friday and we continued up today. GDX closed above its 50 day moving average. Not sure how far and how fast this rally can go but we'll enjoy the ride for now. Needless to say our GDX March calls are showing a good profit for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with the downside day. Still short term oversold here. We've got the Fed chairman before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday followed by the employment report on Friday. So there will be plenty of excuses for market movement this week. Not sure what to expect but we'll keep our eyes on things as usual. Asia was up and Europe generally down to begin the trading week overseas. We'll keep watch on tonights developments.

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