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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Option expiration gyrations today as the Dow fell 177 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now back to a sideways movement. The inflation data was hotter than expected but we actually opened a bit higher before selling off. The day would of ended up worse but we got the last half hour buying spree again. The Dow led the way lower and that's not the worst case scenario. The TRAN did get whacked though. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and now in a sideways configuration. We're on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. The April option cycle has an extra week in it so the premiums are high. Gold was off another dozen or so on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and we'll need to see that condition change before attempting the April calls there. Markets rarely cooperate with our best laid plans. I'll try and remain patient with GDX here as we have a Fed meeting meeting next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off from the best levels on the session. I'm not sure where it goes from here but the 50 day moving average seems to be the level of near term support. Expiration Friday on the docket. Would not be surprised if the SPY finished tomorrow around where it is today. At least that is what the open interest is perhaps telling us. We'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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