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Monday, March 11, 2024

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trending up. The Dow managed a gain today but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the red. Awaiting tomorrow inflation data and we should move off of that. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at extremes. I did not purchase the SPY March puts today as we don't have a clear techincal signal to do so. Not sure what to expect from the data tomorrow but would not be surprised if it comes in worse than expected. Just a guess there. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and so where interest rates. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added another 1/2. Volume was pretty good once again. GDX remains short term overbought and staying there. Money left on the table as I sold the GDX March call position too soon on Friday. We'll wait for a pullback to try the GDX April calls. There is a two year down trend line at 31.5 that should provide resistance if GDX gets there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but down from the highest levels on the session. Getting to short term overbought on the indicators but not there yet. Don't know what to expect from the VIX tomorrow. Four days left in the March option cycle. Do we dare attempt another trade before the weekend? We'll have to see how the technicals line up. Asia was mixed as Japan got whacked and Europe generally lower to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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