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Friday, March 08, 2024

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving higher and out of the recent sideways channel. The jobs report came in better than expected and the market liked that. As the day wore on we had a bout of selling followed by another rally attempt before rolling over again into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory but the indicators appear to be rolling over again. However every time this has happened in the past two months buyers have reappeared. The longer term up trend line is still intact on the S&P. I still might try the SPY March puts ahead of Tuesdays inflation data but that's a decision to be figured out over the weekend. Gold was up about twenty bucks on the futures but off of the best levels on the day. The US dollar finished almost unchanged after being down early. Interest rates bounced both up and down during the session only to finish about where they started. The XAU had a fractional loss while GDX was unchanged. Both finished off of the highs for the session. Volume picked up and was good once again. I sold my GDX March calls but not sure if that was the right decision. Gold and the gold shares are due for a rest, the question is when. The gain was a little over 1000%. In plain english this trade returned better than ten times the amount traded in a week and a half. The entry was spot on but we'll have to see about the exit. However as always win or lose we move on from here. I'm considering the GDX April calls now if we see some sort of pullback in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I don't want to get too excited over the last trade because it means nothing now and you've always got to be moving forward in the game. The VIX was up today but off of its highest levels. The short term indicators still have room to go in either direction. Not getting a good feel for what will happen with the VIX next. Only a week left in the March option cycle. We'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a profitable idea for next week. Plenty of data out highlighted by the inflation reports on Tuesday and Thursday. Asia was up and Europe generally down to close out the week in the foreign markets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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