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Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Sellers took over after the long weekend as the Dow fell 64 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We did recover from the lows of the session though. The S&P 500 is still in overbought territory but not at extremes. The short term indicators have rolled over. The up trend line from last November is in jeopardy. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts but will not chase things here. If the S&P somehow moves up from here and the indicators stay below their previous highs the puts are worth a shot. But that's asking a lot and I would not be surprised if we just head down from here. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates nudged down. The XAU finished basically unchanged, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. I do like the GDX March calls on a pullback this week if we see one. However with gold up and the gold shares not following it isn't the most positive environment at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above its 200 day moving average and upper Bollinger band. Not sure what to expect here next but the short term indicators have room to go higher. It is a short trading week without a lot of economic data on tap. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow with NVDA earnings due after the bell. I suppose it is best to sit tight for now. Europe and Asia finished mixed in last nigths trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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