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Friday, February 02, 2024

Tech earnings and a surprisingly robust jobs report were met with buying today as the Dow gained 134 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues sideways. I thought that the jobs report could be a non-event and it wasn't. Big tech earnings, besides Apple, were met with glee. The NASDAQ led the way higher by far. New all time highs for the S&P 500. There is another short term potential negative RSI divergence there on the daily chart. But potential doesn't mean that it will be valid. However the weak breadth today doesn't have me believing that we will be going much higher without some kind of pause. Still might try the SPY February puts at some point before option expiration. But for now the bulls are in charge. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The gold shares got whacked with the XAU losing 3 1/2, while GDX lost a point. Volume was heavy to the downside in a complete reversal of yesterdays gains. I did place an order for the GDX February calls overnight and it was filled at the open. I thought that if perhaps GDX pulled back I could get in to try the calls. What I didn't expect was such a huge move lower. The position is already showing a loss. The entry timing was horrible. The only saving grace for now is that GDX did manage to stay above the support at 27.5. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and pointing down. Unless we see a turnaround back up early next week this trade will be a loser. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as trying this GDX trade was perhaps not the best thing to do. There wasn't a clear signal to base the trade off of after yesterdays price action. Patience perhaps could have been rewarded but it's too late now. The VIX finished flat and we would expect it to movve lower on a strong session like today. The technical indicators for the short term remain at the mid-range level. Not sure what to expect next here for the VIX. We are seeing a narrow leadership rally for stocks. I'm not sure that it can last that much longer but I could be wrong and often am. You cannot argue with price. If the S&P continues to climb and we get a sell signal I'll try the SPY February puts. We'll hold the GDX trade at least in the beginning of next week but we'll have to see buyers there for it to have a chance. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and be ready for whatever next week brings. Europe and Asia finished generally higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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