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Thursday, February 15, 2024

Continuing higher as the Dow was up 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher but remains in a sideways panel. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Retail sales came in lighter than expected. The S&P 500 was up and remains short term overbought but not extremely so. My guess here is that the S&P either morphs into a blow off top or we get another negative RSI divergence on the daily chart and we roll over. The up trend line from last November remains intact so the path of least resistance is higher. The big sell off on Tuesday has only been met with more buying. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we won't fight price. Remaining on the sidelines for now as we'll let expiration Friday pass. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. The bounce signal we were looking for from one of our indicators doesn't look like it will show up as the gold shares are already starting to move up. The short term indicators for GDX have started to move higher. Perhaps if GDX heads back down to the 26 level we'll try the March calls there. There is a down trend line on the GDX daily chart that comes in at around 27.75. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with some of the short term indicators now at mid-range. Not sure what to expect next here. We have seen the stock market come back in the past couple of days. Not sure if it is the next move to a new all time high or just something option expiration related. We'll know in the next few days. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. Inflation data out on expiration Friday so we'll close out the trading week on that.

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