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Monday, February 26, 2024

Another mundane Monday as the Dow lost 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 was lower and didn't hold up here until Tuesday as I had hoped in order to try the SPY March puts. We'll see how things go in the next couple of days but this trade may not happen for me since the index is already starting to drop. The technical picture hasn't changed for the S&P with the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. Inflation data out on Thursday should be the main mover of the week unless we get some kind of surprise before then. The NASDAQ had the least loss on the day. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares did come up from the lows on the session. My open order for the GDX March calls is still out there. Another day like today will probably get it filled. This trade seems to be getting riskier as time goes on as the signal is not as clear as it was. I may adjust it lower overnight. If the overall market starts to drop as I think it will, the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the day. Not a clear signal here now one way or the other. When in doubt stay out is an old market saying but perhaps it's appropriate for now. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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