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Wednesday, February 07, 2024

The market seems like it just wants to keep going up as the Dow gained 156 points on strong volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led things higher today. The S&P 500 remains in the same short term overbought technical condition. It is on the cusp of closing at or above the 5000 level for the first time. Markets can stay overbought longer than you can stay solvent is one familiar saying for times like these. The breadth here though is lacking for a market moving higher. I'm not giving up on the SPY February put idea but will wait for a valid signal. The NASDAQ is on its way but still hasn't made it to a new all time high. Gold finished flat on the session after being a bit higher early on. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU slipped 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was very light again as there is no interest in this sector right now. My GDX February calls continue to lose ground and are on the way to being an eighty to ninety percent loss unless some buying comes out of the woodwork. Still hanging around the 27.5 support so there is some hope of cutting the loss to something more manageable. But this trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been dumped right away. One of the drawbacks now is being stuck in this negative position while other opportunities are out there. But I'll eventually move on like I always do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators continue to slide and they aren't extremely oversold yet. The VIX still implies higher stock prices to come. It is one reason to hold off on the SPY puts for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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