Friday, May 09, 2008
It was another downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 121 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would indicate. Poor earnings from AIG and higher oil prices are the excuses. We have worked off the overbought condition. I'm thinking that we will get some type of rally attempt next week. I think the tone of the market is changing here and I am going to look to get short on strength. The summation index is starting to roll over. The ideal scenario would be a light volume rally. We'll see. Gold was up another 3 bucks today but the XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower and all had one day reversals to the downside. They each opened higher and closed lower with ABX getting the worst of it. The ABX calls I have are back under water. This has been an incredibly poorly managed trade. Why I continue to stay in it with only a week left is beyond me. I should have gotten out of it at least 2 times already without a loss. My brain must be asleep. But it isn't looking like it will come back at this point. The weekly technicals are oversold and staying there. It also is the weakest of the group right now. Perhaps my mind will get back to reality next week. I certainly hope so. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. I think the market is perhaps going to roll over here. It already has to some extent but the bullish sentiment remains. I'll be looking for some type of rally and then hopefully step up and get some June OEX puts. The ABX trade needs to end so I can focus on something else. If it's a loser, so be it and move on. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. The weekend will be a chance to check things over and get ready for Monday morning. We'll see what happens.