Monday, May 19, 2008
An interesting Monday as the Dow was up over 150 points and closed with a gain of 41 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ opened higher and closed lower. It's time to buy the OEX puts in my opinion. There is a chance that today will be a downside fake-out but my work indicates that there will be some decent downside on a closing basis at some point this week. I'll be looking to get short any strength tomorrow. We do have inflation data coming out. Gold was up $5 today and the XAU gained a point. ABX gained 3/4 while GG and NEM were basically flat. The volume was light. The dollar was higher today and gold still managed a gain. I'm not looking to try anything with the gold shares at the moment but that could change. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. Hard to tell what that means. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It is very early in a long, June options cycle. Premiums are high but there is still money to be made. The market has been very resilient lately. We are at or above the important 200 day moving averages for quite a few indices. It is risky to try the OEX puts here but I do think it's worth it. Todays sell-off lets you know that others have the same feeling perhaps. The summation index is still going higher, that's something that could change but it hasn't yet. We are overbought but could stay that way. So it's a tough call. We'll see what tomorrow brings.