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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Squeeze those shorts as the Dow rose 178 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Yesterdays one day reversal to the downside was not confirmed. It looks like we will run it up early in the expiration week. I am going to get some OEX puts tomorrow if the opportunity presents itself. Still short term overbought and I think strength tomorrow should be sold for a quick profit. We do have the Fed meeting and announcement which kind of throws a wrench into things as far as timing goes. But I do think that buying OEX puts at some point tomorrow will work. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I do still want to get some gold share calls for April but am concentrating on the OEX scenario for now. The weekly gold share charts still imply higher prices near term. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. So the OEX will be the next trade. The market has changed here, make no mistake about that. The decline is over for now. However expiration week can be volatile and I believe there will be some decent downside action before Fridays close. The entry will be tough and I hope I'm up to the challenge. We'll see what happens.

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