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Monday, April 20, 2009

A downer Monday as the Dow lost 290 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. No buyers today as we begin the May option cycle. Is it the beginning of something big on the downside? I don't know. Sometimes the Monday after expiration gets skewed for whatever reasons so we'll have to see how things play out from here. Too early for an OEX trade as there is no solid signal and the options are pricey. Gold was up almost $20 on the safe haven theory however the XAU only gained 2 3/4. ABX was up 1 1/2, GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up a buck. Volume was nothing special. My GG calls are back where I bought them. I would have liked to see more upside and volume in the gold shares today but it didn't happen. The dollar had a pretty good day as well. Plenty of time for the GG trade to work out and we are still oversold there. At this point it looks like ABX would have been the better issue to trade. Hindsight never fails. So I will have to determine if I'm going to dump the GG calls early here and try and buy them back cheaper or just hold on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The gold shares stopped going down for a day but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will be taking off to the upside. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days. Plus we have the earnings factor in the May cycle. So it will be interesting but it remains to be seen if it will be profitable.

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