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Monday, August 23, 2004

The Dow was down 37 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A slight pullback here should be expected. I'm still getting a buy signal from the put/call ratio though. As for the 10-day trin, it's overbought. Mixed signals for sure but I think we will work higher in the coming weeks. I'm looking at GE calls as a proxy for the market. Gold was down 2 1/2 today. The XAU was off a couple points. NEM and ABX were both down but not a lot. Volume here was light also on the pullback. I have an order in for some ABX calls. I think gold is going higher. It broke through the recent downtrend line on increased volume. The next expectation is a snapback to the line broken. I believe that is what is happening now. I will be looking to get some NEM calls also. If any trade is going to work, long gold at this point should. There are no guarantees but this set-up seems to be going the way it should for now. I don't want to get too overconfident but I believe this one is legit. We shall see. Beginning of a new option cycle so there is no rush but I don't want to be left behind again either. The overall market, the OEX and GE is a tougher call. Time will tell. Not much data this week. 2 weeks until Labor day. Might be quiet until then, with the employment report due out the friday before.

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