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Wednesday, August 04, 2004

15 minutes to go and I knew I was in trouble with gold yesterday. Gold was only down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM are both down over a buck. The technicals are rolling over. The NEM options are right back where I bought them and the ABX options are showing a loss. Why keep holding them at this point? Why indeed? The only thing they have got going for them is time. At this point the only scenario that will make this work is a low employment number on friday followed by a Fed meeting with no rate increase. Can it happen? Maybe, but I sure don't know. The Dow sold off early and has come all the way back to positive territory. It has the action of a market that wants to go up. I'm laying off the puts today but that doesn't mean that I won't buy some tomorrow. Advance/declines have turned positive. Volume looks like it has picked up a little on the rise. Perhaps a weak employment report would give the markets hope for no rate increase. Again, that's just a guess. The dollar is a little stronger today, however to me it looks like it is topping out here, short term. Advance/declines now back to even. I suppose I'll wait for the employment report. It has been a while since I've had a trade move against me. Somehow, I've got to battle myself into doing the prudent thing. It's tough. There will always be other trades. But it doesn't feel like that when you're in them. Market now moving to flat on the day. XAU near its low of the day. More tomorrow...

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