Friday, February 10, 2017
Continuing higher to finish the trading week as the Dow added 96 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Short term overbought remains the condition for the Dow and the S&P. Looking back it would have been better for me to let the SPY February call trade go another day. That is money left on the table. Expiration week is upon us and the usual positive bias could be in effect since there really is no overhead resistance here. However we are due for some type of pause and I'll consider the SPY February puts for a short term trade on Monday. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. I'll also considering the March calls here but this issue has been a laggard lately. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares have moved higher since the middle of December but there doesn't seem to be any conviction to the move in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Kicking myself for not holding on to the SPY call trade another day will get me nowhere. There was a case to be made for hanging on another day but I took the profit instead. Holding on could have doubled the gain if the exit was right today. The thing about this game is that you've got to keep moving on regardless. With a week to go in the February option cycle, any trade from here will have even more risk than usual. The case can be made for some weakness early next week. However we've seen in the past that the market can remain overbought for quite some time. If the usual positive expiration bias shows up next week, the extended overbought condition will remain. I'll have to check the technicals over the weekend and decide from there. Timing. as usual, will be the key. Europe and Asia were positive overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.