Tuesday, February 14, 2017
The rally moves on as the Dow gained 92 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. We also closed on the high of the session and that's bullish. I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are already in the red. I may be a day early on this trade but there isn't any room for error with only 3 days to go in the February option cycle. So we'll see what happens. We'll get plenty of economic data to trade off of tomorrow. Yellen spoke today and the market shrugged. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good. We now have GE and the market moving in tandem and that is a positive as well. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There appears to be no stopping this market as we are setting new all time highs session after session. Why try the SPY puts here then? I am getting a signal to get short here. I do not think that it is the beginning of a huge move down but the indicators do say that we'll see something to the downside and soon. I'm trying not to be subjective and taking the signals as they come. I do think that perhaps I want to put on another trade after selling out the SPY February calls way too soon. That is my risk here. There is not a lot of money in this trade so to me it was worth taking a shot. You should go with the signals when they occur but yes, you can use your own discretion. It would not be a surprise if we're higher tomorrow but this certainly won't last in a straight line up much longer. Enjoy the ride if you're long. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. The moves were slight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.