Thursday, April 10, 2008
The Dow rose 55 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 100 at one point. Do I still want to buy weakness tomorrow? We'll see. Today makes things a bit more difficult. Monday is perhaps the optimum time to get long. But maybe not. And therein lies one of the problems of trading. You just never know for sure. We are medium term overbought here and that doesn't help the bullish cause. This is a scalp trade if it happens. I'll ponder it again tonight and go from there. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had daily ranges of around a dollar but ended little changed. Volume wasn't much again. I'd like to get long here because I think the CPI next week is going to be strong. I don't think I'll be putting that trade on though. I'd really like to go out to May or June if we get a decent signal. I also think we just might move sideways for a while, like the overall market has lately. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market but that's a guess. Mentally I feel OK. Just wondering if this OEX trade is going to be worth the mental capital. Again, the timing will be very important with only 6 days left on the option cycle. I still think we will get a decent up move between now and the close on Tuesday but I could be wrong. I suppose we'll see if there is weakness tomorrow and go from there. There is always the option of doing nothing. I still feel that shorting the OEX when it hits the weekly downtrend line will be a good trade when we get there. There's nothing wrong with patience.