Friday, April 18, 2008
A huge expiration Friday as the Dow gained 229 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. So the question now is, is it for real or just expiration related? The summation index is trending higher. We don't have any negative divergences as yet. We are just about at the weekly down trend line in the indices and seem to be breaking through it on the Dow. I'll check things over the weekend. Earnings are beating the lowered estimates so far. There isn't a signal yet but we are getting short term overbought. Option premiums are expensive rolling into the May cycle. I'd like to give it time to build a little top but we'll see. Gold was down today on the stronger dollar. It lost over $25. The XAU didn't do so bad considering, only down 3 3/4. ABX and NEM were off over a buck and GG lost half of that. Don't exactly know what to make of that, perhaps influenced by the strong market up move. Not even close to a buy signal in the gold shares though. GE was up over 1/2 on good volume. Just a week ago the stock got clobbered and the overall market tanked. Now here we are with a great week in the averages for the bullish cause following that debacle. So it never gets easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We aren't medium term overbought yet and I should probably wait for that before attempting the OEX puts. Fed meeting in a week and a half. There isn't any rush to do anything at the moment. The weekend is here and it's again time for a respite. I'll be checking the charts over the next 2 days and going from there. Right now it seems as though the market wants to go higher regardless. Time will tell.