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Monday, April 14, 2008

Monday started us off with a loss of 23 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The OEX calls I own lost more ground. Baring a miracle, that will be the first losing trade of the year. I bought some more OEX calls at a different strike price at the close. It is kind of the same trade really just better timing in my opinion. Unless the stock market completely collapses tomorrow, we will be higher. I will go out on a limb and say we are up at least 100 or more on the Dow tomorrow. We are both short and intermediate term oversold. It is one thing to say we will be higher and another to profit from it. Hence the purchase of more calls at the close today. We'll see. Gold was up a touch and so was the XAU. ABX and GG were higher, while NEM lost some ground. Volume was light again. The dollar rallied a bit overnight and then sold off during the day. There was a G-7 meeting over the weekend and they tried to talk up the dollar. I might try something for gold in the May option cycle. Haven't gotten a signal yet. GE was slightly lower on extremely heavy volume. It will sell itself out here eventually. A bounce here would certainly help the OEX. If I had been thinking properly, after the GE news on Friday, I would have waited to purchase the OEX calls. Hindsight is always right. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep that well. It was also extremely hot here over the weekend and today. It takes a bit out of you and can affect your concentration. Same for extreme cold I suppose. However the premise for the market here remains the same. A decent up day tomorrow and that will probably allow me to exit the calls. If not then there are worse things to come but I doubt it near term.

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