Thursday, April 24, 2008
The Dow gained 85 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up about 170 at one point. A mid-range close heading down. We are medium term overbought here and a pullback should be expected. Today was perhaps the day to purchase some OEX puts. Also we're up against the weekly down trend line in the OEX. Premiums on the OEX options are still a bit high with so much time left for the May cycle. However there may be a divergence on the McClellan oscillator tonight. We'll see. Gold was hammered again, down another $20. The dollar had it's best day in quite some time. Oil was down as well. It is entirely possible that a bottom is in place for the dollar here for a while. Time will tell. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all down on good volume. NEM reported good earnings and it didn't matter. I had an overnight order in for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving the order open for tomorrow. Nobody wants gold at the moment. When nobody wants it, that's when I like to take a look at it. There is a buy signal for the gold shares here. That doesn't mean it will work right away but the odds tilt in your favor I believe. GE showed some life for a change and was up a buck during the day. It closed up 1/2 on good volume. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well enough. Money moves around. It seems that it is moving out of bonds and into stocks recently. Perhaps starting to move out of oil and gold and into stocks. Perhaps moving from the euro to the dollar. These seem to be the short term themes I'm seeing at the moment. That said, MSFT disappointed after the bell and we should see a down day tomorrow, especially with an overbought medium term condition. Perhaps we've seen the highs of this move today but I'm not completely sold on that idea. We'll see what happens.