Tuesday, April 29, 2008
A waiting game as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It's all up to the Fed now and whatever statement comes out tomorrow. There has been talk of no rate cut at all but I doubt that will happen. I can make a case for a fall here but I don't think it will last too long. But we'll see. GDP tomorrow also. We are still overbought. Gold got crushed today, down around 20 bucks and still selling off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost at least a dollar on good volume. My overnight order for ABX calls was filled. Of course I could have gotten a better price during the day but go figure. It's the kind of trade that is dead from the start it seems. Earnings in a week but it seems the macro story is bigger. The dollar is gaining strength and nobody wants gold anymore. That could change but it seems that money is moving out of gold. I'm going to sit tight until the earnings unless we just tank out from here. I am getting a buy signal for the gold shares here but it could take a while at this rate. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I am OK, could have slept better. Computer problems early but it sorted itself out. My thoughts right now are that even if we get a sell-off tomorrow it won't last too long. My own technical work is telling me that. As always, I could be wrong. That is why I haven't purchased any OEX puts as of yet. The ABX trade isn't looking good today but that could change. It might be something that I exit if it gets back to even, regardless of the earnings. Trades are always in flux. It's not some long term, hold until expiration deal. That's for sure. Tomorrow should be interesting.