Monday, April 21, 2008
Starting the week off on a mixed note as the Dow lost about 24 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ was higher. We sold off early and came back. The market seems as though it wants to go higher here. We are short term overbought and just about at the weekly down trend lines. I'll need to see some volume if we break the longer term down trend lines. Otherwise I'm looking at the OEX puts. We are at the beginning of the May option cycle. Not a lot of data out this week. It could be a wait and see approach for now. Fed is next week. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU lost a couple points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower, with NEM off the most. Volume was light. The dollar lost some ground today but there wasn't any rally in the gold shares. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Kind of a treading water day all the way around. Mentally I'm OK, didn't sleep all that good. We are at the point on the charts that is just about make or break time. I've been waiting for the indices to get to their respective down trend lines and they are there. What happens here will determine where we are going for the May option cycle. My ideal scenario would be to form some type of top over the next few days and then get short. But the market will do whatever it wants. I'll try and listen to what it tells us and act accordingly. Easier said than done. I've got some ideas about the Fed meeting but that's all they are, ideas. They aren't facts. So it's time to pay close attention, as always, to what's going on and take it from there.