Wednesday, April 30, 2008
It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow lost 12 points on good volume. We were up over 170 at one point after the Fed announcement. Advance/declines look slightly to the positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I still don't think that this is the beginning of a big decline. I could be wrong. The Fed cut rates the expected 1/4. Perhaps it was profit taking, maybe end of the month nonsense or just relieving the overbought condition. You cannot deny the price action though. I can't see any big upside ahead of the employment report due on Friday. Gold didn't do much during the day but did rally a bit after the Fed. The XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all were higher on OK volume. The volume in ABX was very heavy as was the volume in the May 40 calls. Don't know what that means but ABX didn't move as high as GG and NEM. Perhaps end of the month settling. The ABX calls I have are now slightly in the black. I suppose I will wait for the earnings on Tuesday now. But we'll see. GE was down a touch on average volume. Sideways there lately. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. As always the question is where we go from here. Tomorrow should be a down day after the action of today. We aren't oversold here but could get there by Friday sometime. We are stalling where you would expect to on the indices. Is it a pause before we break out to the upside or is that it for the bulls? Answers to follow in the coming days.