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Monday, April 28, 2008

A fairly quiet Monday as the Dow lost 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. We were higher for a good portion of the day but turned around in the last hour to close near the lows. I could easily make a case for buying OEX puts here and perhaps will tomorrow. However the internals have been very positive lately and the summation index continues higher. We are medium term overbought and any strength tomorrow will get us short term overbought as well. But I'm not completely sold on the market falling apart here. It's a tough call but we are at the longer term weekly down trend lines. Fed on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There will be plenty of reasons to go one way or the other. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU dropped 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down at least 1/2 on light volume. I still have an order in for some ABX calls but this doesn't feel like the greatest trade in the world either. However it is oversold short and medium term. Earnings out in a week but it might track the movement in the dollar more closely. It's never easy. GE was down about 20 cents on light volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I did not sleep well and therefore was a bit tired today. I thought about getting the OEX puts when we were higher on light volume but did not. I am thinking that the ABX call trade could work so I left the open order in. But I'm not totally convinced one way or the other at the moment. And that could be a problem. So I'll go over things again tonight and take it from there.

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