Friday, April 25, 2008
Continuing higher despite MSFT. The Dow gained 43 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Medium term overbought and staying there at the moment. MSFT loses over 2 points and it doesn't faze the markets. The tone has changed. I'm not trusting the lighter volume here though. I thought perhaps yesterday was the day to get short and I was wrong again. Next week will tell the story with GDP, the Fed and the employment report. I'm leaning to the OEX puts but I'll have to let the market decide. Summation index still heading higher. Tough to fight that. Gold didn't do much today but the XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all higher with NEM leading the way. That hasn't happened in a while and makes the rise suspect in my opinion. I'm still looking at the ABX calls, canceled my open order for the weekend. Will look to place it again on Monday. The dollar continued higher. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Could bode well for the overall market going forward but who knows? Mentally I'm doing OK. We are still at the crossroads here. The market has the feel that it wants to go higher though. Sometimes it's all about money flow. A better dollar makes US stocks more attractive. Although oil was back up today any drop there makes stocks look better too. That said, getting short before the Fed is on my mind also. So there will be plenty to ponder over the weekend. Technically we are overbought but could remain there, or not. However it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. As usual I'll try and come up with a game plan for next week and take it from there.