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Monday, November 22, 2004

We have entered the Thanksgiving holiday week. Usually the market goes up. The Dow was up today over 30 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I'm guessing we will consolidate here for a while, but who knows? GE was down a little today. I still want to get those March calls but they just don't seem to come down much in price. The January calls I own are still showing a profit and are in the money by a point. Gold was up again today almost at $450. ABX continues to soar, up almost 50 cents on heavy volume again. I don't know what is going on with that stock because the XAU was only up a tad and hasn't broken out like ABX has. Needless to say I wish I had some calls there. NEM also has yet to break out. The dollar was a little weaker and has gotten a lot of press lately. It seems to me everybody in the game knows about its weakness at this point and I think some type of pause is due. But I said that a couple points ago too. The technicals there are blown out to the downside. I'm going to try and be patient for the gold but really think a correction is due. Timing is everything in the game, that must not be forgotten. Controlling risk is another key element to success. However taking risks is the way to huge profits and I feel that soon I will be taking some. I am still a believer in the year ending in 5 theory. I think this market will take off to the upside at the beginning of the year. I will be setting up the January trades with this in mind. Pfizer is falling off the radar screen for me here. It was down again today and I'm not sure I will trade this issue afterall. Unless it forms a decent bottom in December with the tax selling that I anticipate, I will pass. It's possible I will concentrate my activity in GE and go from there. At this point that's how I'm leaning. But I'll let the market action dictate what I'll do, hopefully. I'm going to try and sit tight this week. Perhaps let December roll around and prepare for January. It's hard to say. I also am looking at some OEX calls for next year. The ideal scenario would be for a consolidation here and up and away from that. We'll see.

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