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Friday, July 07, 2023

It was a tale of two markets today as the 1st half of the day was up and the 2nd half down. The Dow fell 187 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is moving sideways. Trying to determine which way things will go from here is the problem at the moment. The jobs numbers were in line with expectations. The overall market was not as weak as the Dow. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has a double top. The short term indicators here are pointing down. The Bollinger bands on he NASDAQ daily chart are starting to contract so something is brewing there. I'm still leaning towards the downside here but will look at things again over the weekend. Inflation data due out next week should be the next driver of market movement. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates wre steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX gained over 1/3. Volume was light. GDX remains on the oversold side but not at extremes. I'm now looking at both the July and August calls there ahead of next weeks inflation data. Perhaps if we see weakness here early next week I'll try the GDX calls. However we'll have all weekend to try and figure out what to do here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished lower which doesn't fit with a down market. It did again close below the 50 day moving average. I'm not exactly sure where the VIX is headed. There's still 2 weeks to go in the July option cycle. So we have plenty of time to make a trade. Hopefully I'll have a clearer picture of what to do after going over the charts this weekend. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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