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Monday, July 03, 2023

Slight gains on a shortened trading session as the Dow was up 10 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Most traders are off until Wednesday and some for the rest of the week. The summar rally is in full swing but there is a potential negative RSI divergence brewing on the S&P daily chart. So far we have a light volume rally scenario that we were hoping for. It has taken us above the recent highs for the S&P 500. I suppose that if we are going to try the SPY July puts we should do so before the jobs report on Friday. We'll consider this for the next couple of days. Gold and the US dollar finished flat on the day. Interest rates had a slight rise. The XAU gained almost 2 points while GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was pretty good considering it was a half day session. GDX has now broken through the down trend line that began in May on the daily chart. The positive RSI divergence here did indeed turn out to be true. We will try the GDX July calls again on any weakness. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range so there is plenty of room for them to go higher. However there is the chance that the gold shares just continue to move higher without a rest. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself and that's a plus. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today as well. The tight Bollinger bands still imply that something is coming here. Asia was up and Europe slightly negative to begin the week. Enjoy the July 4th holiday tomorrow.

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