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Tuesday, July 11, 2023

No need to wait for the inflation data or so it seems as the Dow gained 317 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The consensus is for the comsumer price index to show a drop tomorrow so I suppose some are buying today in anticipation of that. Short covering is probably also a factor in todays rise. The short term indicators have turned back up for the S&P 500 with room to go higher. The NASDAQ is a laggard here so we'll have to see if that poses a problem going forward. We also have the tightening of the Bollinger bands going on with the over the counter stocks. So either we've just had a consolidation before a big price rise or the NASDAQ is going to roll over for a decent decline. I can't say that I'm bullish given the time of the year but markets go where they want. Tomorrow should give us an indication of what's about to happen. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar continued its fall and interest rates were steady. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up over 1/8. Volume was light. I placed orders overnight for both the July and August GDX calls. In the morning I canceled the GDX July call trade and left open the one for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will be higher with the overall market tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are still mid-range. I would expect them to roll over tomorrow on market strength as well. On another note the prices for the SPY July call options were extremely overpriced compared with the puts. The market makers here are generally on top of things so when you see this type of activity it sometimes tips the markets hand about what is to occur. It is saying that we will be going higher in the near term and we'll see about that tomorrow. Asia and Europe were up as money is coming into stocks around the globe. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows inflation data.

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