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Wednesday, July 26, 2023

It's now a bakers dozen for the Dow as it rose for the 13th day in a row. The most watched index gained 82 points on about summer average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed raised rates as expected but the market didn't move around much until the Fed chairman started his speech. Up, down and back up was the pattern until the close. The S&P 500 finished basically unchanged and the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The technical conditions remain the same as the S&P continues to be short term overbought. We are in a market atmosphere that simply does not want to go down. This is supported by the index option premiums that remain skewed higher for the calls. Yes, we still like the August SPY puts at some point in the monthly cycle. But for now the bulls are in charge. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were down. This all occured despite the rise in rates from the Fed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX August calls is still out there. The inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact on the GDX daily chart. I will probably have to adjust the GDX call order that I have if I want it to be filled. However I'm not 100% sold on this idea because the pattern could fail. Getting to mid-range on the short term indicators for GDX now. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading for the lowest level on the year. Short term oversold and staying that way on the indicators here. It was a pretty good drop in the VIX without a huge rally in stocks today. Not sure what that means going forward. We've still got GDP tomorrow and inflation data on Friday to sift through. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep watch on tonights headlines.

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