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Monday, July 10, 2023

Hanging around on a summer Monday as the Dow gained 209 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Dow outperformed today and that isn't the most positive scenario. We are getting short term oversold on some of our indicators for the S&P 500 but most remain mid-range. Waiting on the inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesdays numbers being the key. We do have some negative RSI divergences on some of the major indice daily charts but no real break downs yet. That could change this week. But I'm also not seeing anything that says we can't just start to head higher from here as well. That's what mid-range indicators will do. You can make the case either way. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was off a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was slightly better than average. The gold shares up and gold not is a positive sign. I did place an order for the July GDX calls overnight but it wasn't filled. It looks like today was the day to try the calls here so I am going to have to decide tomorrow if I want to chase this move higher or not. It will be too late Wednesday if gold rallies off of the inflation data. But if the data comes in hot, the GDX calls most likely will not pan out. Technically the 200 day moving average held once again for GDX and that is a plus. Perhaps heading out to the August option cycle is the correct move here. Always plenty of questions without easy answers in the trading game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with a positive market. Still below the 50 day moving average here. The mid-range short term technical indicators here make trying to predict what happens next with the VIX a chore. The only thing that I can say with any clarity is that the market will be moving on Wednesday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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