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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

The Dow rose 132 points today on OK volume for the summer. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The producer inflation actually dropped today, fueling the rally. So it turns out yesterdays poor action on charts didn't matter. The original OEX call theory was correct but it would have been quite a ride to hold them until this morning. None the less, I'm moving on because I think the next potential trade on the put side will work also. Gold was down around $6 today but the XAU rose around 2 points. The volume was light there so it is not to be trusted at this point. I don't see any gold trades at the moment but I will have to check things again tonight. Getting back to the overall market it looks like perhaps it will run up here for expiration week and that will be the chance to get some September puts. That could be my play. Technically there might be a little more room here to the upside but I don't think we are going to new recovery highs. I could be wrong. I'll keep an eye on the volume. Mentally, I'm a bit spent as computer problems occurred again today with no email the main one. The others I was able to work out but a new system needs to be looked into. I need to get back to constant reading of the blue book. I need to stay on top of things and do the work required. I need the discipline to come back but I also need to listen to myself. I knew the producer prices would not be high this month. The commodities have leveled off. I'm not so sure about the consumer prices. We'll find out tomorrow. I'm trying to stay on the sidelines for this cycle. September looms and I think that will be the time to go for it...

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