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Monday, August 07, 2006

The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I was up early but did not get a chance to buy any OEX puts. I am waiting for some type of rally to get short. I don't know if the opportunity will present itself before the Fed announcement tomorrow. I might just wait it out but I don't want to do that. It's a tricky call as usual. Gold was up about 4 bucks and the XAU rose around a point and a half. Volume was light here, way off recent activity. I have a thought of getting some puts on the XAU here as well. If the Fed raises rates as I suspect it will make the dollar stronger and hence gold should fall. The XAU is also at resistance. It is mildly overbought on the technicals. However I have been tracking the OEX here and I believe that will be the play. But ya never know. I'm trying to be patient here but there isn't much time left before the Fed tomorrow. I'm getting some mixed signals but action should and must be taken. The options expire at the end of next week. The McClellan oscillator has given a short term sell signal. These signals have been working well lately. The summation index is still pointing up though. It's never easy. Mentally I'm a bit tired but nothing that will hinder my decisions. I'd like to make some money and I'm ready to go. The fighting is still going on in Lebanon and any stoppage of the battle should sink gold also. However no end is in sight at this time. Oil rose a couple bucks today on a pipeline stoppage in Alaska. Gold did not follow as strongly as it could have. Tomorrow could hold the key for a while and I really need to get it right. We'll see how it plays out...

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