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Wednesday, February 04, 2015

A mixed market today as we digest the recent gains.  The Dow was up 6 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  We dropped hard in the last half hour and that's a near term negative.  I'm still a believer in higher prices and will try the SPY February calls if I get the chance.  Patience might be needed here though.  We do have employment data to muddle through on Friday.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light.  GE hasn't really moved up with the overall market here and that is not a good sign.  But that could change.  Gold rose about $5 on the futures and the US dollar came back up today.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 3/8.  We have built a tight small coil on the gold share indexes.  We'll have to see which way it breaks out.  The gold shares indexes have also stalled at their 200 day moving averages.  I'd be guessing if I said which way I think things can go here.  Shorter term the technical are mid-range.  Longer term, we're overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not 100% just yet.  It appears that problems in Greece are about to take center stage again.  That could roil the markets tomorrow and might provide some support and buying in gold and the US dollar.  We'll see.  Perhaps it will provide an opportunity for the SPY February calls.  USO was lower today.  Maybe the short covering rally there is over.  One thing that hasn't changed is volatility.  It remains a condition that has to be dealt with at this time.  I need to get some rest so once again I am cutting this short.  It will be interesting to see what happens on the Greece news tomorrow. 

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