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Thursday, February 12, 2015

Higher we go as the Dow gained 110 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The prognosis remains the same.  New all time highs are coming.  The major stock indices are short term overbought now and staying there.  I did not get a chance to take advantage of the rally even though it was expected.  We never did see any decline to drop the premiums on the calls that I would have liked to pay.  So the SPY February call trade will go down as another missed opportunity.  But at least my take on the market is correct at the moment.  The retail sales number was weak but we rallied anyway.  In this kind of rally mode, the numbers will always be considered bullish regardless.  The question now become just how high can we go?  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  The market keeps chugging along higher and I'm in slow moving GE.  At least I still have time on my side here.  Gold was only up a buck or so on the futures despite a decent drop in the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4.  Volume remains light here.  Interest in the precious metals has backed off for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I guess I'll start taking a look at the SPY March calls.  The measuring objective from the 2 month consolidation in the S&P 500 is pretty high.  But I'll need to see the technical indicators back off again and get to short term oversold.  That could take a while.  It won't be before the February expiration.  So it's time to be patient once again.  Hopefully I'll have the guts to get long on the next signal.  But as always the market goes where it wants.  This was a good trade missed on the SPY February calls.  My thinking now is that the players won't believe that the rally will keep on going, once we get some type of multi-day decline.  Or who knows?  maybe we'll just keep heading up.  We'll watch the overnight action and close out the week tomorrow.

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