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Thursday, August 23, 2012

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now pointing lower.  I still don't think this is the start of something big to the downside.  However the technicals have rolled over for the stock indexes.  It is still summertime vacation mode though.  We'll be short term oversold in a day or so.  We should drift back up after that.  That's my guess at the moment.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume and we have come back to the uptrend line that began in June.  This could be the place to get some GE calls.  I don't think I'm going to attempt a trade here though because I'm already involved with the ABX trade.  Gold continued to rally today as the futures were up over $30, adding to yesterdays aftermarket gains.  The US dollar was just a bit lower today.  The XAU only rose 1/3 and that is troubling going forward for the bulls.  ABX had a fractional gain, while GG and NEM each lost 1/4.  Volume was good here and there is interest once again in the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  We are just about at the resistance for ABX on the daily and weekly charts.  The volume has been good lately.  I think that we will break through to the upside but when is the question.  Very overbought here short term but I'm now thinking about simply holding the calls because there is a lot of time left on them and I think ABX will breakout to the upside.  I could be wrong.  Gold itself has broken out to the upside and the trend has changed from sideways to up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Who knows?  Maybe I'm wrong about the stock indices here and we are in the beginning of a decent decline.  The weekly charts of the indexes look like they may be putting in tops.  I'm still sticking with the bullish scenario for now.  Gold has had a nice breakout and the volume is confirming it.  Any pullbacks can be bought in my opinion.  Overbought short term for now though.  Haven't heard anything out of Europe for a while but that could change at any moment.  End of the week tomorrow. 

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