Wednesday, August 22, 2012
A mixed market today as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Simply working off the overbought condition before moving higher is my guess at the moment. The market was lower but made a comeback after the Fed minutes release that implied more easy money coming soon. Not sure if that will happen or not. Whatever the case it's still a light volume summer market mood. We need to get through 1420 on the S&P 500 to start another leg up. GE still a bit lower today and still light volume. Nothing new to report there. Gold rallied after the Fed minutes and the futures actually closed a couple of bucks lower but rose $15 in the aftermarket. The US dollar fell again on the prospect of another easing. The XAU was up 3 2/3. ABX up 3/4, GG and NEM rose a buck. Volume was OK again. My ABX October calls are now solidly in the black. The gold shares are very overbought here and I am still considering dumping the ABX calls before the end of the week. However the longer term gold share charts still look very constructive for more gains. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm guessing the remaining 2 days of the week will be a slow drift to nowhere. Things should get somewhat back to normal after Labor Day. The stock indexes remain overbought even with a couple of days decline but that doesn't mean that they can't move higher. Gold has broken out to the upside as the US dollar has fell in the past couple of days. Not sure how long that will last as the dollar has trend line support at the 81 level. Volume has been good for gold here though and that is bullish going forward. One thing for sure about trading, it's never easy. ABX has resistance at $38 and we are just about there. If we get through $38 there will be more gains to come. We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight and take it from there.